The use of triangular probability distributions together with a relatively simple mathematical model in a Monte Carlo simulation can offer insight into the probable returns and amount of risk involved. The example used in this paper indicates that if the minimum attractive rate of return (MARR) is stipulated as 20% after taxes, there is less than a 1% chance of not receiving that MARR. The corrosion engineer can present his choice to management not only in financial terms but with degrees of risk calculated.

The paper presents a method for constructing triangular probability distributions easily and quickly for most if not all ranges commonly encountered.

This method frees the corrosion analyst from single point analyses, and it avoids the complex and unnecessary mathematics of classical probability theory.

Subject
Materials, Modeling, Corrosion rate, Probability distributions, Deviation, Probability, Constants, Experimental data, Investment, Mathematical models, Steel, Engineers, Construction
© 1982 Association for Materials Protection and Performance (AMPP). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise) without the prior written permission of AMPP. Positions and opinions advanced in this work are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of AMPP. Responsibility for the content of the work lies solely with the author(s).
1982
Association for Materials Protection and Performance (AMPP)
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