Abstract
The performance of bolts in drilling and production systems is determined by many parameters, such as the bolting material structure and properties, metallic and non-metallic coatings, installation factors (e.g., torque), and operational factors (cathodic polarization, etc.). The acceptance of bolts is also determined by test method. A variety of test methods are used ranging from bend tests to fracture mechanics-based testing. These factors have attendant data and knowledge uncertainties. Thus, a probabilistic assessment is appropriate. This paper examines the effect of the combined uncertainties on the performance of these bolts using a Bayesian probabilistic approach. The paper also discussed conceptual approaches to managing the performance of bolts.